Longford wrongly advised to reduce population forecasts

Longford's status as ‘the fastest growing county in the country’ in the last six years has forced the Office of the Planning Regulator and the Minister for Heritage and Planning to review local development plans.

The revelation came to light in an Executive response to a notice of motion set down by Fianna Fáil Councillor Seamus Butler at the July County Council meeting.

Cllr Butler's motion read, “That due to the recently published 2022 Census information that County Longford has increased its population by 14% since 2016, I propose that we revisit our current County Development Plan in regard to residential housing zones and any other parameters that are related to population growth.”

Preliminary Census figures for Longford recorded the population of the county on April 3, 2022 at 46,634 (it was 40,873 in 2016). The population included 23,297 females and 23,355 males. This is an increase of 5,761 (+14.1%) since 2016, made up of a natural increase (ie births minus deaths) of 1,625 and an estimated net inward migration (ie population change minus natural increase) of 4,136.

In fact Longford recorded an average annual net inward migration of 16 persons per 1,000 of the population between 2016 and 2022, the highest in the country.

Addressing members, Cllr Butler said, “It didn't come as a huge surprise to us, though it came as a surprise to the media, that we had the biggest proportion of increase since the 2016 census. Time and again we raised this issue during discussions, and in fairness to the Executive they sought to increase those projections.”

He criticised repeated lowering of projections by the Department of Planning. “The fact is that Longford's population is now reaching what was projected by the Department and the Office of the Planning Regulator up to 2032. If you had a business and your projections were off the mark by 10 years you would not stay in business for long.”

Cllr Butler said there were many positives to be taken from Longford's thriving population, but said the discrepancy between projections and actual numbers has implications across the board for education, job creation and housing.

Fellow party member Uruemu Adejinmi concurred with her colleague saying, “We should be looking for additional funding from the department to improve and enhance the infrastructure to accommodate the burgeoning population.”

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Fine Gael’s Cllr John Browne sought clarification from the executive on ‘Strategic Residential Reserve’.

“The Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage issued new Guidelines in July 2022,” he said, “I want to draw attention to Page 47 of the guidelines which state ‘It is a policy and objective of the guidelines that zoned housing land, in an existing development plan, that is serviced and can be developed for housing, within the life of the new development plan under preparation, should not be subject to de-zoning’. The Department also states that lands that are serviced and available for new housing construction should be retained as such, rather than be de-zoned.”

Cllr Browne said that under the Longford County Development Plan 2021-2027 Lands zoned as ‘Strategic Residential Reserve’ have “in effect been de-zoned” adding, “This to me, appears to be at variance with the spirit of new guidelines issued in July 2022.”

Cllr Mick Cahill (FF) said the statistics used for planning for development were “shown to be out of kilter in Longford.” He added, “If we look to Ballymahon we can see growth is causing continuous pressure. We need to be in a position where we can review the situation.”

Responding to queries from councillors, Senior Planner, Donall Mac An Bheatha, said it was ‘better to see Longford growing than going into decline’.

Mr Mac An Bheatha said, “There is a certain element of pride when we look at the regional map growth and we can see that Longford joins Dublin, Waterford and Cork.”

The Senior Planner said the local authority had been consistently flagging the population increase to the Department, but had been ‘slapped back down’. “We have been putting in the correct figure for the last three or four development plans, but every time we come up with the correct figure the department reduces the figure. They just don't seem to accept that a county like Longford can grow in the way it is growing.”

He said recent correspondence with the Office of the Planning Regulator and the Department for Heritage and Planning about zoning got ‘no response’.

Mr Mac An Bheatha said, “We would like the department and the OPR to get their act together and give us the correct information. We would be wise to wait for the full census figures to come out, but the basic message is that Longford is a rapidly growing county. The population has grown by 50% in 22 years.”

The implications for the inaccurate data foisted on the local authority planners: “We in the planning section have been coming up with the correct forecast every year for three or four Development Plans, and every time we were instructed by the Department to reduce our figures. They just don't seem to accept that a county like Longford could grow the way it is growing.

Land zoning, educational provision, health and infrastructural needs will all be affected by the disparity between Department planning data and CSO figures. Mr Mac An Bheatha said the local representatives needed to contact Minister of State with responsibility for Local Government and Planning Peter Burke to expedite a response from Department planners on what the local response to the CSO data should be: “We need some guidance as to what the hell we are going to be doing going forward.”

In a written reply to Cllr Butler's motion, John Brannigan, Director of Services for Planning and Project Delivery noted:
“This is phenomenal growth of 50% in 25 years, is without precedence and a great credit to Longford County Council and the people of the county for delivering and assimilating this increase while also maintaining the county’s infrastructure, services, and community spirit.

“There are implications for the Longford County Development Plan 2021-2027. The preliminary outturn figures for the county identify that these projected population figures have been substantially exceeded.

“This population growth achievement is ten years earlier than forecast by the National Census Office and the Department of Heritage and Planning. Longford County Council had correctly forecast this growth in advance of the three previous Development Plans but was wrongly advised by the Department to reduce its forecasts.”

Mr Brannigan spoke of “further review” for each of the settlements.

“In respect of these revised population figures there will be potential implications in respect of housing delivery and supply, including demand in respect of new housing, social housing and affordable properties for rent and purchase.”

Other areas include jobs and employment opportunities; infrastructure – including water supply and wastewater capacity across all settlements in the County; Social Infrastructure – this ultimately includes reference to the impacts on education and school facilities; Health including doctors, hospitals, dentists; community facilities; amenities, parks and open spaces with sports and play facilities including; and retail and business services.”

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Mr Brannigan concluded, “The (Longford) Planning Office has already contacted the Office of the Planning Regulator and the Minister for Heritage and Planning on this issue.

“Both have agreed that it will be necessary to review the figures but that it must commence at National, then regional level before local county reviews occur.

“In addition, it would be beneficial to get a more detailed breakdown into local town and village areas to improve the benefits of a review. I therefore recommend that we await more detailed census results and hopefully this time more accurate guidance from the Department before commencing a review of the County development Plan.”

Members requested that the Executive write to the Minister for Heritage and Planning, Deputy Peter Burke, to arrange a meeting to address the anomalies presented by the inaccurate data that fed into the current County Development Plan.