General election before March 'odds-on'

Odds of first quarter general election drop to 4/9

There has been a huge gamble on the Irish general election being called in the first three months of the year.

Reports at the weekend suggested Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was insisting on a deal on property tax reforms with Fianna Fáil before a date for the election was agreed, but pressure has been increasing for a visit to the ballot box in February.

 BoyleSports had the odds on a first-quarter election out at 3/1 before the weekend, but a burst of money for the poll being carried out before the end of March has seen the odds plunge into an odds-on 4/9.

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Varadkar had publicly earmarked May as his preferred date for voters to go to the polls and that was a 1/2 shot before the increase in money for the earlier date. Odds on the election falling between April and June now stand at 13/8, while it’s 16/1 that voters will have to wait until the second half of the year.The odds of the election taking place any month from January 2021 stand at 20/1.

Lawrence Lyons, spokesperson for BoyleSports said: “There has been a huge amount of movement in the betting over the past 24 hours and with the latest shift in the trends, we’re now expecting the election to be called sooner rather than later.” 

Month of Next Irish General Election

• 4/9     January 2020 - March 2020
• 13/8   April 2020 - June 2020
• 16/1   October 2020 - December 2020
• 16/1   July 2020 - September 2020
• 20/1   Any Month From January 2021

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