Opinion: It is critical that we in Longford vote for our own

As a former Chairperson of a political party here in Longford Town (Fine Gael in my case) I am eagerly looking forward to engaging in this year’s election this time as a voter rather than an activist.

I was amazed to see in the Longford Leader this week that there are as many as 20 candidates this time round.

I admire them all for their courage and I believe we should respect each of them for their efforts and, above all else, take the time out on November 29 to cast our votes for the candidate of our choice.

In 2007 Longford-Westmeath returned both James Bannon and the late Peter Kelly to Dáil Éireann in what was then a four seat constituency.

From what I say below, that 2007 result was a phenomenal achievement for our small county and arose because of the extraordinary vote getting skills of our two elected candidates at the time.

Now we have a five seat constituency and there is a real prospect of returning two candidates from our County at the very time that we most need to be represented in the Dáil.

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The Longford-Westmeath constituency is made up of the entire counties of Longford and Westmeath for the first time since 1980.

The overall population of the entire constituency at the last census was 142,972.

Of this, Longford has 46,751 (an increase of 14.4%) and Westmeath 96,221 (an increase of 8.4%).

Longford has 32.69% of the population of the constituency and Westmeath 67.31%. There are just five seats, 20% each. The quota will be 16.66% of the vote.

However many of the increased population in Longford will not be on the register. Therefore if every single person in Longford and Westmeath were to vote by county only, the outcome for two seats for Longford will be razor sharp in my opinion.

There is a risk that Longford could end up with only one seat.

To secure two seats for Longford, candidates from Longford must get votes from Westmeath and Longford must vote solidly for Longford candidates transferring onwards to other Longford candidates. The outcome is therefore TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

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We are a small county and need to punch above our weight to secure two seats for our county.

It is critical that we in Longford vote for our own this time, more so than ever before.

As a gesture of solidarity with the candidates, I will now put my head on the block by endeavouring to predict the outcome.

I anticipate that Peter Burke and Boxer Moran will top the poll and get elected; I think Robert Troy will also get elected at some point. The remaining two seats will, I expect, be between Joe Flaherty, Micheál Carrigy and Sorca Clarke. While Gerry Warnock has put his hat in the ring this time, I don’t think he will be able to make enough inroads this time round.

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If Sinn Féin polls well this will mean that either Micheál Carrigy or Joe Flaherty could fail to gain a seat. This is very tight. I cannot honestly predict who will be the unlucky loser.

My heart of course says that I would like to see the Longford candidates elected but at the end of the day that will be down to the people of Longford to decide. I cannot even say for certain whether Micheál or Joe will finish ahead.

Micheál Carrigy was only 1,000 votes behind Joe Flaherty last time round – not a lot to make up and there is the Simon Harris factor and the reality that Gerry Warnock may make more inroads into Joe’s vote than Micheál.

For the sake of completeness I will make a prediction that both Joe Flaherty and Micheal Carrigy will be elected but I’m not sure in what order and that Sorca Clarke will be the unlucky loser left stranded at the last count.