Longford will hope for two seats but big battle is likely

The country goes to the polls on Friday to determine the identity of the 174 TDs in the 34th Dáil and while it is anticipated Longford will secure at least one seat the question is whether Longford will get two.

Fianna Fáil candidate Joe Flaherty (7,666 first preference votes) struck a chord with Longford voters in 2020 and the Lanesboro native and former Managing Director of Iconic Newspapers was the second candidate elected to the 33rd Dáil from the Longford-Westmeath constituency.

Flaherty's triumph, alongside that of outgoing TD Robert Troy (9,331 first preference votes), helped Fianna Fáil capture two of the four seats on offer, the first time the party achieved that feat in this constituency since 2007 when Mary O’Rourke and the late Peter Kelly were elected.

Against the backdrop of Sinn Féin’s incredible #GE2020 performance that saw Sorca Clarke comprehensively top the poll, it was a noteworthy double and the highlight of an otherwise disappointing campaign nationally for Micheál Martin’s party.

Clarke, who failed to win a seat in the 2019 local elections in Westmeath, hoovered up votes in every corner of the constituency, including an estimated 3,500 in Longford, as she garnered 11,848 first preferences.

Somewhat ironically, it was the transfer of 2,828 votes from the eliminated Micheál Carrigy (Fine Gael) that got Flaherty across the line. Carrigy's party colleague Peter Burke (6,617 first preferences) gained 2,709 votes - 119 less than went to Flaherty. The fact that 40% of Carrigy’s votes remained in Longford suggests that voters in the county gave #1 and #2 votes across party lines.

However, the Ballinalee postmaster and Co Longford Tourism Chairperson, who was first elected to the county council in 2009, and secured 6,334 first preferences did lament the fact that 3,500 votes left Longford and went mainly to SF’s Sorca Clarke.

If a chunk of those votes went to first-time GE candidate Carrigy, then Longford could have been celebrating the election of two TDs.

With an extra seat up for grabs this time around Longford candidates will be hoping to increase their representation but as the 2016 election demonstrated, they can take nothing for granted.
Independent candidate Cllr Kevin 'Boxer' Moran lost his seat on that occasion, however, the Athlone native has been rejuvenated and he won a seat in the local elections last June with a sizeable first preference vote.

Several leading bookmakers have Peter Burke (1/20), Sorca Clarke, Robert Troy (1/10), and Kevin 'Boxer' Moran as heavy odds-on favourites to win the first four seats.
The fifth seat is expected to be a huge battle and the bookies feel Joe Flaherty and Micheál Carrigy have an equal chance (both 8/15).

Both are well-known and have obvious strengths and it would appear to be too close to call, however, the latter will feel confident he can turn the tables.