LATEST | Fine Gael’s Micheál Carrigy poised to win Dáil seat in Longford-Westmeath as Peter Burke set to top poll

Ballinalee based postmaster, Senator Micheál Carrigy is on course to capture a seat in the 34th Dáil, while his party colleague, Peter Burke is in line to top the poll. 

Outgoing Longford Fianna Fáil TD Joe Flaherty is in a serious battle for survival and needs much luck with transfers if he is to retain his seat. 

Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran, after losing his seat in 2020, is poised for a return to the Dáil, with Fianna Fáil’s Robert Troy on course to win a seat for the fourth consecutive election. 

Sinn Féin’s Sorca Clarke, who topped the poll in 2020, is also fancied to take a seat. 

With all the boxes tallied in the Longford-Wesmeath constituency the shape of how the land will lie after the first count begins to make itself apparent.

The leading six candidates are - Peter Burke 10,860 (17.7%) ; Robert Troy 8.073 (13.2%) ; Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran 7,994 (13.1%) ; Sorca Clarke 6,907 (11.3%) ; Micheál Carrigy 6,868 (11.2%) and Joe Flaherty 5,069 (8.3%). 

The top six candidates vying for the five seats have been made known, how the final chips will actually lie is yet to be determined.

There is a strong indication that outgoing Enterprise Minister Peter Burke (Fine Gael) will top the poll with a surplus of 660 votes. 

The next past the post will be a little less certain, however betting on a Dáil return for Kevin 'Boxer' Moran (Independent) is a short odds gamble. According to tallies, the ‘Boxer’ has picked up 7,994 (13.1%). 

The number of tallied first preferences for Robert Troy (Fianna Fáil)  8.073 (13.2%) and Micháel Carrigy (Fine Gael) 6,868 (11.2%)  have their teams confident, while the suggestion is that the dog fight will be between Sorca Clarke (Sinn Féin) Sorca Clarke 6,907 (11.3%) and Joe Flaherty (Fianna Fáil) Joe Flaherty 5,069 (8.3%), with the sitting Sinn Féin deputy being favoured by political pundits.

Coincidentally in #GE2020 there were six candidates that polled in excess of 6,300 first preference votes - Sorca Clarke 11,848; Joe Flaherty 7,666; Peter Burke 6,617; Robert Troy 9,331; Kevin 'Boxer' Moran 6,730 and Micheál Carrigy 6,334 and the same sextet are leading the way once again, according to the tallies. 

The tallies are a strong indication of how the standing will be after the first count.

However, with such a tight field the direction of transfers will be difficult to call and ultimately decide who the five Longford Westmeath TDs in the 34th Dáil will be.

Casual observations have suggested that the dockets of some of the independent candidates are 'plumpers', votes that don't transfer.

Westmeath candidates Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran and Sorca Clarke took a healthy number of Longford votes, while the poor turnout in Longford town is seen as a potentially fatal wound for Joe Flaherty and the ambitions of independent candidate Gerry Warnock.

After the completion of the tallies the cup is still some distance from the lip.