One certainty of this pandemic is it will pass, says Longford GP

It seems like an age since the first case of covid 19 hit our shores but in reality it has only been a blink of an eye. The first case arrived on March 10 and so much has changed in the ensuing seven weeks.

The initial advice - wash your hands, keep a safe distance - seemed so novel at the time but in reality little has changed in that regard.

At that time the r0 number (reproductive number) was in excess of 4.5 And the pandemic was on a trajectory which would have overwhelmed the health care system in a matter of weeks. Daily advice from Dr Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer at the Department of Health was issued as to how we needed to flatten the curve to buy time to allow the health service cope with the ‘surge’.

Tough decisions had to be made and restrictions on individuals’ movements and liberties never before contemplated were implemented – schools closed; pubs and restaurants closed; shops closed; leisure activities were limited; attendances at funerals and religious services were restricted; visiting grandparents and families was prohibited – it was as if the whole world simply stopped. And to cap it all the sun, which had hidden itself since last June, chose to come out.

Irish people are, by their nature, a sociable group, so such restrictions came hard for us. But the community rose to the occasion and did exactly as were asked – they stayed at home, they stayed apart by social distancing, they washed their hands and observed cough etiquette. They watched the 6 o'clock news and listened carefully for each new piece of news or advice.

And slowly but surely the curve began to flatten – the r0 number fell and the efforts of the public were seen to pay off. Currently the r0 number is approx 0.5, which if maintained would auger well and the virus could be contained.

It wasn’t high tech medicine which brought about this change – but the concerted efforts of the community. Public health advice was always that the disease would be beaten by the community effort and nothing else. In time there will be vaccines and most likely medical treatments but as of now the most powerful item in the armory is the power of the community to maintain the effort which has proven so effective .

And the success to date is so fragile – the possible rise in the curve and r0 number – so sensitive to change. When you look at the graph you can see the dramatic effect of each intervention which has brought us to where we are. Equally, any reversal of these measures could have an equal and opposite effect.

There have been clamours for easing of restrictions and that is understandable – it has not been easy for many groups, especially those with young children – especially in this good weather.

Longford has been somewhat sheltered from the hardest effects of this pandemic with a relatively low incidence compared to some of the urban areas – suddenly being rural is cool.

Whatever decisions are to be made in the easing of the restrictions will have to be done cognisant of the effect of likely increase in risk of infection in the community.

Equally, the government has to take cognisance of the social and commercial effect this has had on the community – getting the balance correct will not be easy or straight forward.

With the upcoming bank holiday weekend, when people would normally relax and socialise, it may well be that the government may ask yet again for the community to respond in the manner it has shown to date – in solidarity with those who are most affected by this scourge – to continue to do what has been shown to be most effective in defeating this disease – to stay at home – to keep our social distance and to wash our hands – these basics are as true today as the first day of the pandemic .

Rural communities have voiced their displeasure when ‘visitors’ have flocked to their small rural villages at holiday times - displeasure driven by fear of introducing Covid into otherwise Covid-free areas. Rural dwellers are fearful that local health services may be overwhelmed by sudden increases in incidence of Covid in their areas.

The days around bank holidays are particularly known for this and the advice is at this time: stay away until this problem passes.

The one certainty of this pandemic is that it will pass – all pandemics do - it is how we behave during this time that determines the damage it leaves in its wake.