Opinion: Opportunity to shape a new future for Longford Westmeath is upon us

Longford has a proud tradition in politics. Dating right back to the War of Independence and political giants like Sean MacEoin. It is a county that knows a thing or two about activism. Yet it is also a county famous for its pragmatic, if slightly conservative approach to issues.

Traditionally over the years you could break Longford politics down pretty easily: Two parties, no nonsense. At least that was how it was often described to me.

Even though there were strong independents and voices from other groupings, like Joe Sheridan, and several well known local electoral figures, these always had their roots in Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.
The last twenty-five years, Ireland has been changing. Populations have moved and shifted at a greater rate than ever before, changing the make up of the Longford electoral base.

The constituency is an interesting one now that suffers both from a state of national and local flux. Make no mistake though the upcoming election will be particularly important for the constituency.
There are some things that make politics in Ireland unique. Our electoral system is one of them and it confers many advantages in terms of representation, choice, and local influence. It also brings disadvantages like any system. A lack of national focus and a lot of compromises.

Elections in a democracy are all about who you choose to rule and decide policy. That means who ends up in government. After that our system leaves scope for who you want in opposition and to add other voices. Right now, though, the parties are struggling. A system where all our parties are struggling to go much beyond 20% is not a healthy one. The campaign is dull because of it.

Normally a national vote of 7-11% for Independents allows for some great individuals to come through, but the system is not designed for the Independent vote to outstrip most parties. This means we will get a lot of individualism. A lot of specific items but not huge direction as a country and that’s a problem long term.

Longford Westmeath is a constituency where a lot of rivalry still exists between the counties. A sense of who is getting more than who still pervades and leaves a disjointed view of policy in the region.
However, there are major national issues that must be addressed. Whether you are a believer or not in climate change or environmental concerns it is going to impact you. In the next decade our transport system must change utterly. It will change utterly. The only question is how well will this constituency implement that rather than can it avoid it.

Our energy systems will change utterly. How we use water will change. Our waste systems need a drastic overhaul and this will be implemented too.
Many will tell you these things can be ignored. They will tell you there are other ways to prolong the inevitable change. They will tell you someone else can do it so you don’t have to. The problem is this constituency will be impacted hugely by all those things. Without being at the forefront of those changes there will not be investment, there will not be delivery on promises.
Longford and Westmeath have both had some great times but there are difficulties all over this constituency and many things people are not happy with.

But in truth our greatest problems have stemmed from when we have believed a comforting voice that told us not to worry rather than face the truth.
We are quick to blame politicians for broken promises. The truth is though, promises work.
Many know they can’t be delivered but there are usually far less votes in telling anyone that. Much better to just say what people want to hear.

This constituency really needs to force itself now to face some hard choices and be ready for a coming change or in a decade we will face just more complaints about broken promises and how yet again the midlands got left behind.

Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke and his son Leo at the 2020 General Election count in Athlone Picture: Shelley Corcoran

The 2020 election saw Longford regain a seat by solidly getting behind Joe Flaherty. It also saw the rise of Micheál Carrigy and changes in the north and south Longford power bases of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Sinn Féin were carried on a wave to the top of the polls and Sorca Clarke stormed home. Robert Troy and Peter Burke were still the most likely potential Ministers and had no electoral issues.

With the constituency moving to a five-seater in 2024 it should, in theory, be easier to predict, but of course theory rarely matches practice. It must be safe to assume that Burke and Troy can both hoover up enough votes from their record and profile to secure seats.

Sorca Clarke may have a battle on her hands. The local elections were poor for Sinn Féin, but that said there is enough in their vote nationally to assume that they should take a seat. Clarke may well find her vote down, but it would represent something of a shock if SF proved unable to hold the seat.
Then we have the return of ‘Boxer.’ For me this is one to watch because after a very impressive local election and with the high polling of independents Moran should really be in position to take a seat.

Of course, Clarke and Moran know that there are many permutations that affect that outcome. Hogan will poll well and Louise Heavin could pick up a lot of votes but where these transfer to will be of particular interest and impact. All of that of course affects the Longford side of the constituency too.
Now Flaherty and Carrigy are the two big names here. There are even hopes that Longford might take two seats but that will be a tall order and require some real luck on the transfer patterns.
Flaherty will hope that Warnock’s votes in the town area will come back to him in the count.

Warnock will of course hope for an Indo upset, but he may struggle to connect with those beyond the town and it may not have been the wisest move to depart local elections through disillusionment just before embarking on a general election campaign. Flaherty though will find there is a challenge to him this time more than last and he will need Longford and FF votes to religiously back him to see him safe.

Carrigy with a small addition to his vote that may come from FG being in a better position is in real contention. He may end up being the sole Longford TD or he might hope to pip a Westmeath candidate at the post. The big question for both these counties is how many people are willing to vote beyond the county border.

So, the opportunity to shape a new future for the constituency is upon us. There is no time to be indecisive. It is no time to ‘hope for the best’.

We need as an electorate to challenge the candidates and make our demands but to be clear about what we want and be ready for the obvious realities we face.